Could Covid-19 and its repercussions create armed conflicts of direct importance between the powers?

Could Covid-19 and its repercussions create armed conflicts of direct importance between the powers?

Could Covid-19 and its repercussions create armed conflicts of direct importance between the powers?

Q: Covid-19 and its repercussions create conflicts of direct importance between the ?

I don’t think so, at least I hope not. it all depends on what you mean by ‘powers’. If you think ‘powers’ in the sense of ‘ powers’, then in my opinion, . Covid-19 or not, a high-intensity conflict between them could degenerate into a nuclear confrontation, which at best can only result in a Pyrrhic victory for the ‘victor’.

That said, for some powers the Covid-19 at least its consequences can be seen as an opportunity to advance a few chits.

A small example:

The US Navy saw one of its aircraft carriers, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, hit by the pandemic.

The affair generated a psychodrama within the U.S. Navy, with the consequences of the isolation of the crew of the aircraft carrier, the dismissal of its pasha, then the resignation of the Secretary (Minister or Secretary of State) of the U.S. Navy.

As a result, the Roosevelt, which was to carry out missions in the South China Sea and which was in Vietnam at the beginning of March (with a highly symbolic stopover in Da Nang), was out of service for two , remaining on the docks in Guam.

, during this time, the Chinese navy increased its activity in the South China Sea, but also off the coast of Taiwan. Operations, exercises, destruction of fishing boats, which were obviously taken as so many provocations in Hanoi, Taipei or Washington.

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For Beijing were several objectives:

to show that the country and its armed forces recovered and contained the pandemic faster than the Westerners.

to test the reactions of potentially weakened adversaries/rivals.

In , both domestic policy and strategic objectives.

That said, it hasn’t gone any further, for the moment.

In the longer term, it will be noted that Covid-19 will impact the military recovery efforts of all the major powers. Whether for the United States, Russia or China, the pandemic has had and still has a very significant economic cost. Armaments programmes and defence budgets could fall victim mechanically, given the scale of the economic recovery programmes announced, the recession and the significant in social and spending. On the other hand, support for defence industries and major programmes could also be part of a recovery strategy. To be seen, then.